As its the middle of the year I thought I would run through the portfolio as it stands now and performance at the half year point.
I am currently up 10% for the year. This is disappointing especially as I was 17% up at the end of April. It is all due to Man group falling back (despite me selling some at near the highs and a bit lower still). I also potentially mishandled RHM – I held as it rose from my entry to 12p very quickly then watched as it dropped right back down again. Holdings in Fondul Proprietatea, National Grid and SIHL have done badly – FP due to the greek crisis and falls in natural gas prices.
If you compare to the FTSE this is mediocre – FTSE TR up about 7% since the start of the year but it matches Neil Woodford’s performance. This is quite depressing as it means for all the effort I put in I could have just bought him then forgotten about it!
This includes profit from the odd cheeky trade like buying Woodford Patient Capital on IPO then selling a few days later for 5% as it rose to its inevitable premium…
I also have a Euro GBP short on to hedge my FP. exposure as the Romanian Leu is pegged to the EUR. Wish I had gone bigger on this – having said that FX speculation is generally a suckers game…
I believe the SIHL fall is probably due to a big seller and a lack of liquidity so I will top up.
Portfolio with weights is below:
RUG 3.4% (Delisted ex cash paid)
I wish I had kept my AO. Short on at a decent size when I first put it on I had conviction but let the price move shake me – I want to get better at shorting.
My top 8 holdings are 85% of my portfolio. Is anything really added by the rest ? I would argue yes as TJI has the possibility of doing very well at some point. As the price has halved since I posted (on no volume, for no reason) I may well add a bit more.
I might also add to NG. – think this is a safe, bond like stock and in current conditions likely to be a rotation to safety stocks like this…
In addition RHM could do very well, again a potentially year making share – possibly I have put a bit too much in given the risk.
I am completely unlevered – I currently have a 4% cash position. I would like a few more shorts to balance the longs but am not a natural shorter and haven’t done it for many years.
FFY- I bought most of the current holding at 0.94 per share – though I have some I bought at 0.32 eur per share – its now 139 – a 48% gain on a big position. I am a little uncomfortable with its size – 21% is big for any holding. Despite this I will hold through my discomfort as I believe the stock is cheap.
WCW – released results. Profit was rubbish, cashflow good, balance sheet strong. I will give it a year or two – I think value will out but troubles in markets may undermine my thesis it could be smart to cut a bit if crisis continues and price holds up…
SCS lightened up on this one – still believe my argument but will exit if any information comes out to suggest ongoing sales weekness – I dont expect more falls as I think negativity is in the price.
I am not optimistic about achieving my 40% profit target for the year. I think most likely outcome is another 20%er. This isnt good – if I keep on achieving this sort of growth I become rich – but not quickly enough. I really need 40% a year… Might be time to change tack – will give it a year or so to see how current method pans out… I am aware if I push it too hard I can go the other way – something to be avoided!