Quick update on big market moves.
I have been relatively lucky – I am now up 4% for the year (inc dividends).
Comparing this to a fall of 7% in the FTSE 100 ex dividends or 4.5% inc dividends isnt too poor. I have to caveat this as RHM has been suspended ahead of a reverse takeover and Renn universal growth remains suspended pending distributions – so I am not 100% sure what these will ultimately return…
I managed to liquidate much of my biggest position (Ffyfes) on Monday on a high after the large falls, luckily FFY didnt fall and I realised it was only a matter of time before other people realised this and sold it – so I got in first. Its now trading for quite a bit less than I sold it for so to some degree this is a success…
I have added to SIHL – which I think is still extremely cheap. I have trimmed some Titon – at zero cost, having just added – mostly to minimise risk, I also completely sold my Man group – its main fund is trend following so vulnerable to whipsawing (buying the highs and selling the dips) in a market like this…
Fondul Proprietatea has quite a bit of oil and gas exposure so has fallen quite a lot, this has been cushioned to some degree by exchange rate moves and it is now trading on a discount of 36%. In actuality the discount is wider. I also suspect that many unlisted holdings are worth more than they are in the books for and this will come out in time… Difficult to buy and I dont want to send more money to Romania…
I believe this fall is overdone – its in reaction to China but it should be remembered that although China is down quite a bit over 6 months it still up handily over 12 months. I saw a concerning chart this morning basically S&P 500 earnings per share (so allowing for buybacks) have flatlined over the past 2 years or so – indicating that any progress will need growth….
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