Still selling thing here and there. I am not convinced that the market will rebound swiftly from this.
Sold a bit of WCW – asset managers are generally down, Exited Titon – I think this may be the beginning of the end of the property bubble which will hurt them eventually…
Lots of things looked quite expensive before the vote so there is lots of scope for it to fall. We are not near capitulation, equally we are not near a political resolution – so I think we are going to keep falling.
Now many would say I shouldn’t sell out – that I should let the long run take its course and wait it out. This is not the approach I intend to take. I don’t have a huge amount of capital – in situations like this I have a bit of an advantage as I can get out of positions nimbly and ideally get out and back in again where I see a chance.
Continue reading “Brexit – Long USD, Exit Titon +3%, Keeping FTSE250 Short on, cut WCW”
Looks like I was right about the brexit vote – very glad I put the Hedging FTSE250 trade on last night.
Wished I had put on more – it was a damn good trade, many ways to play – buy gold, currency trade. Often how I do it, I am just not aggressive enough!
I didn’t believe my portfolio or the markets generally would behave as they have – Japan was down 8% !
FTSE 250 down 8.2% as of writing.
I have exited Stanley Gibbons, and most of Vertu. I have also exited a good bit of Tribal (at an awful price) and some SIHL.
This puts me to a position of c25%+ cash and a FTSE250 short covering 25% of the remaining portfolio.
I am down 4% on the day in GBP so it could be much worse – though if you value the portfolio in USD or EUR I am down probably over 10%.
Key question now is how long do I stay out and when / if I go back in… Put in a small Eurostox long – I dont think Brexit means the 50 biggest Euro stocks are worth 9% less than yesterday
I am concerned I don’t sell out relatively low then end up buying in higher, equally I dont want to sit out a long / slow fall in prices…
I think on balance I should have probably not sold some things I sold but then equally I am not convinced this is the bottom.
SGI – 36% loss, VTU – 16% loss.
Just before the close I have decided to do a short term trade shorting the FTSE 250 – to cover much of my UK exposure. 30% of portfolio.
Given we are near highs for 2016 on FTSE 250 and are up a great deal in the last week I think “good news” for the markets of BREMAIN is in the price – if we get a brexit vote I could make a lot.
Probabilities are not in my favour – I recon I will probably lose on this, but I wont loose much 1-2% on the position and if it goes my way I will make a lot – possibly 10-15%.
My portfolio is a natural hedge as it will probably rise if there is a bremain vote…
Bought some Vertu last week average price of 59 – small portfolio weight 3%.
Its much more GARP related than my usual investments.
Business model is – buy little car dealerships at a low multiple combine them to create a bigger group valued at a far higher multiple.
Continue reading “New Investment – Vertu”