$TRB – closing Tribal +57% / +200%

Closed the last of my Tribal at about 79.  This is over 200% of my entry cost, however I only made 57% over the total position.

This is somewhat mitigated by the large size – at peak this was 20%+ of my portfolio.  This pretty much made it that I had to sell all the way up.  I have a rule that I dont go above 20-30% weights. Might be one to think about as it means I am not enjoying the full result of rapidly compounding shares but on the other hand it manages risk…  I think improving this aspect of my investing should be a focus going forwards.

It was very large when I started so I sold out all the way up.

I think at the current prices a recovery is very well priced in.  Even if we believe there is going to be a good recovery in margins to 10% – which they have struggled to reach then we get to a multiple that’s pretty high.  I should have looked at this / sold in the 90s and to some degree am reacting to the recent dip in the share price…

I still think Tribal are very inefficient but I can no longer put a number on it that gets me comfortably to the current price…

Having said that there is a counter argument in that there is a potential bidder on the share register in the form of Jenzabar Limited who I believe own 20%.  Then again this could just be a blocking stake and any aquisition might take a long time to develop.

May change my mind on this if price dips further as I do think another management could run this far more effectively…  Could be a big mistake but time will tell…

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