2022 Review – Worst Year to date, -10% / -34%

So time for my usual review of the year. As ever, I’m not writing this exactly at the end of the year so figures may be a bit fuzzy, in general they are pretty accurate.

As expected, it hasn’t been a good one. If you assume all my MOEX stocks are worth 0 I am down 34%, if you take the MOEX stocks at their current value I am down c10%. This is very rough, I also have various GDR’s and a reasonable weight in JEMA – formerly JP Morgan Russian. So if all Russian stocks are a 0 you can probably knock another 3-5% off.

My traditional charts / table are below – including figures *roughly* assuming Russian holdings are worth 0. It’s a little more complex than this as there are pretty substantial dividends in a blocked account in Russia and quite a few GDR’s valued at nominal values, I could easily be up 10-20% if you assume the world goes back to ‘normal’ and my assets are not seized, although at present this seems a distant prospect.

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2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%

On to my usual review of the year (last years here). We are slightly shy of the full year end but I recon I am up about 20.5%. This is in my usual 20-22% range. It is below that of the (not comparable) NASDAQ (at 27% (in USD) and behind the S&P500 – at 25.82% (in USD). The UK All share was 17.9% and the FTSE 100 was at 18.1%. There has been a decrease in market breadth which is traditionally a sign of a top. Index performance in the US is driven by tech and healthcare, sectors which I hold next to nothing in, so to *roughly* keep up given my idiosyncratic portfolio is actually a sign of strength. One can’t sensibly benchmark my portfolio against anything as it’s just so odd, but I need to so that I can determine whether I am wasting my time.

Q1 Portfolio/Performance update (+11%) Coronavirus and thoughts on where to go from here

Lots going on in the portfolio so I thought I would give a quick update.

At the end of Q1 I was +4% ytd, now (14/4/2020) I am c+11%.  This should be compared to the index which is -c22% now, at the low I was down c5% for the year. I feel a little bad posting this as lots of this is from non-usual (for me) trades… Many of these, I put on Twitter, unfortunately, I can’t post everything as it may move prices against me, particularly where I only sell half.  I know many of you are not twitter followers.  If you would like an e-mail when I tweet there is a service for that here.

Porfolio Review Q1 2019

Quick Portfolio Review – Q1 has been pretty poor for me – up 1.3%. vs 9% for the FTSE All share.

This is despite being up at various points.  My general policy of not runing a stop loss has hurt me.  It might be time on my more liquid holdings to consider putting stop losses in.  This is very much a function of where we are in the cycle – likely near the top / end and not a general policy.  Whilst some people would say that not having stop losses is irredemably reckless I would disagree.

2018 Performance / Portfolio Review -13%, could be worse

As 2018 is almost over I think it’s time to review the portfolio and performance.

Overall result is -13%. Somewhat depends on calculations –  I use broker day end values.  so more or less… This can be compared to -9.7% FTSE all share (total return), far below my 30% target for the year.  Many ideas havent worked this year so what has saved me is profit which was really from 2017 and rolled over the year end in the calculation – particularly Tejoori.

Long term performance has been strong – still 7X up over the last 10 years – long term chart below:

Dolphin Capital $DCI – reentered

Have just bought back in to DCI at 6.3p 4.4% portfolio weight.  I am easing up on weights a bit as I have not had a particularly good run of ideas of late, better to be careful before I get my mojo back!

Quick refresh this is a luxury resort developer, mostly in Grece I bought in Dec 2016 before selling out at evens in April 2017.

Selling DCI – Delay in returning cash / Portfolio update

Changed my mind on DCI.  This is not to say I wont get back in if the price falls more.

I am getting out more or less flat. Announcement that they are going to use Pearl Island cash for working capital and that:

“ The Board will re-evaluate the Company’s distribution potential when there is more clarity on the pace of additional disposals.”

Makes me think selling these assets may take a while longer than I initially expected… I’m also more concerned about the price… I always was a bit concerned about the quality of this one…

Review of 2016 + 33%

2016 is almost over so I thought I would go through what worked, what didnt and my plans for 2017.

+33% is OK – FTSE100 is up 14%, 250 up 3% AIM all share 14%.  Peak to trough draw-downs across these are about 10% where as my portfolio (OK measured monthly) was only down 5% from peak at its worst.

My review of 2015 is interesting putting this in context.  I anticipated that TRB and SIHL would do well but not that I would come up with other good ideas or that TJI would do well.

Dolphin Capital $DCI – bit fishy but worth a try…

Bought some DCI a couple of weeks ago at 7.25 – 4.7% portfolio weight.  Picked up more today at 8p – now a 6.8% portfolio weight.  They released an RNS in Mid November – basically selling property and paying down debt.  I thought this significantly derisked the company.  On Friday 2nd they announced an EGM – they are moving into liquidation mode.

They are a resort development company.  They have just sold Playa Grande at 10% below Nav and paid down debt.  They now have a debt to total assets ratio of 18.5%. Factsheet is here.

#EDIT 8/4/2017 – sold out flat – concerned this might take longer than expected – below may still hold though…