New position Emergent Capital EMG 100%-150% upside

Just bought some Emergent Capital at $2.90 a share (yet another truly awful fill) -7.4% portfolio weight EDIT 8/11/2016 *Cut to 3.7%*.  This, in essence is a portfolio of life insurance policies.  It is trading at a market cap of about $76m.  The NAV is $220m so there is the potential for a near tripling in value.

This has been written up on Seeking Alpha and in the Value Investor’s club.  I havent read the Seeking Alpha one (no subscription).

The key facts are:

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Portfolio Update

Thought I would post a brief update on many of my positions / performance.

Apoolgies if you have seen this before I think I may have published a draft by mistake…

Performance up until end September is 30% up since end December 2013 or 40% over the last 12 months.

Fyffes – as you may recall this tripled since my entry price – due to an offer from CQB up to a high of €1.30.  Unfortunately the deal was in CQB stock, which fell on bad results.  I had a bit of an analytical problem with this – do I value FFY as a standalone business – someone else could still come in and offer – if only to make CQB pay more.  Or do I look at it as a proxy for CQB – which I wouldn’t want to own.  Yet another thing to consider is whether CQB are paying in shares due to their own stock being overvalued.  Later there was a bid for CQB – pushing FFY as low as €0.90  I sold 75% at €1.05-1.10 for portfolio balance reasons and am holding the rest.  I am going to look into adding a bit more as the deal changed again on Friday – but I think this position is nearing its end.