H1 2021 Review / Portfolio +13.8%

Thought I would do a review of where the portfolio stands.

As at end June I am +13.8% for the year, roughly matching the FTSE AS at c12%. it has been far more volatile than is usual, pre-fed comments on tightening sooner than the market expected, I was up closer to 20%. The volatility is driven by the large exposure to natural resource co’s and volatility resulting from their underlying commodity feeding through to share prices, which are, in turn, even more volatile.

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Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, possibility of invasion not priced in

I’ve decided to sell up on most of my Russian / Ukranian stocks.

HYDR, FXPO, SIBN, RSTI, GLTR.

I am holding on to FEES (Russian Electricity grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I can take the pain on this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout news announced today implies *potentially* a very high yield.

I am increasingly concerned there will be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up seems long/ sustained for a ‘training exercise’. If they go home without doing anything Putin will look weak.

I also note last year their western district held intensive training exercises as well.

He will be especially wary of talk of Ukraine joining Nato, in Russian terms this is equivalent to Canada joining the Warsaw pact – something that can’t be allowed to happen!

Q1 Portfolio/Performance update (+11%) Coronavirus and thoughts on where to go from here

Lots going on in the portfolio so I thought I would give a quick update.

At the end of Q1 I was +4% ytd, now (14/4/2020) I am c+11%.  This should be compared to the index which is -c22% now, at the low I was down c5% for the year. I feel a little bad posting this as lots of this is from non-usual (for me) trades… Many of these, I put on Twitter, unfortunately, I can’t post everything as it may move prices against me, particularly where I only sell half.  I know many of you are not twitter followers.  If you would like an e-mail when I tweet there is a service for that here.

Rosetti ($RSTI) / $FEES – Russian Grids at bargain prices

I bought both of these the other week.  They are both very, very cheap and I believe are high quality assets that will rise in price as performance improves and Russia becomes a more ‘normal’ country.

 

FEES – Fsk Yees Pao is the largest grid company in Russia. 80% of the shares are owned by Rosetti, 88% of Rossetti shares are owned by the Russian government.  It is listed in Moscow and London via a GDR – I believe the Moscow shares are cheaper to buy and hold due to fees associated with the GDR. The likely yield is 8-10%.