Brief note on something I have tweeted about a bit and update on what I have been up to…
I have a decent sided position in JP Morgan Russian (c4% weight – if you assume all my other Russian holdings are a 0), it would be a lot bigger – but I already have c 25% all portfolio weight in Russia and there is only so much I am willing to lose if I am wrong on one idea.
Continue reading “$JRS – Cheap but vote against Name / Mandate change, Oil and Gas also Shorts”
This is a simple bet.
If Trump gets in, at least for the first week S&P down 10-15%, gold up 10%, USD down 5-10%, I also think bonds could surprise on the downside. Then the markets realise he actually has very little power and everything goes back up again – if the president had power Obama would have achieved more.
If Hillary gets in very little happens, up 5% maybe, tops… Trump supporters could start civil disobedience if they think the election was stolen – in which case we go down a touch and I win anyway.
Continue reading “Trump Trades – Short S&P500, Long Gold / Silver, Currency trade TBD”