Ecofin Water and Power Opportunities – low risk opportunity $ECWO

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Saw this and it struck me as a good opportunity…

Ecofin Water and Power is an investment trust.  It has just gone to a continuation vote and to get the vote through management has proposed the trust is split into:

  1. A liquid vehicle with liquid investments.
  2. An illiquid realisation vehicle to be wound up within two years -14.1% April 2016 NAV.
  3. A cash option – of up to 50% of NAV.

Details are here.

The trust is currently trading at a discount of 16% to a NAV including realisation costs.  I suspect post realisation this discount will have narrowed – I would anticipate a c10% profit on this within a month or two, should the vote go through…

UPDATE:

I should add below is based on a NAV of 163p – since then it has fallen to 157p… Some may be due to dividend payment / changes in calculation methodology but makes opportunity slightly less attractive than outlined below….

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Tejoori Sells Bekon Holding

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EDIT – 24/8/2016 RNS Today has basically said Bekon was sold for $0.  This invalidates much of but not all of the below – still plenty of cash and land plots to be sold…

Tejoori has sold their holding in Bekon – this is in the books for $3.35m.

This is worth 12c per share at book.  Since Monday, when I suspect smarter people than me picked up on the news the share is up about 12c – 16c depending on how you look at the spread….

Details are here.  Its a 100% sale but we dont know the price.

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ALF – Net Assets 6X Market Cap, Cash half Market Cap, Potential 5 bag opportunity…

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Just put in a 7% portfolio position on the Alternative Liquidity fund at $0.13 – henceforth known as ALF…

This is where Hedge funds go to die, its a fund of side pockets and other iliquid investments.  But its got 5c in cash and much of the rest of the NAV should come eventually, NAV is 0.86c per share.  This discount is extreme, if only one or two investments pay off you get your money back at current prices.  I believe the chances of this are very good.

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Tejoori – Anyone interested in some activism ?

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I may be interested in engaging with management in a more forceful manner.

In particular i am concerned with management’s statement in their last RNS that they will use funds raised:

for Tejoori to investigate further investment opportunities in line with its investing policy”

If you guys could contact me via the website with your holdings (in shares) I can have some idea how many people would support action on this and how many votes I may or may not have.

Every little helps – I believe according to the articles that 10% is needed to propose a resolution.

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Brexit – Long USD, Exit Titon +3%, Keeping FTSE250 Short on, cut WCW

Still selling thing here and there.  I am not convinced that the market will rebound swiftly from this.

Sold a bit of WCW – asset managers are generally down, Exited Titon – I think this may be the beginning of the end of the property bubble which will hurt them eventually…

Lots of things looked quite expensive before the vote so there is lots of scope for it to fall.  We are not near capitulation, equally we are not near a political resolution – so I think we are going to keep falling.

Now many would say I shouldn’t sell out – that I should let the long run take its course and wait it out.  This is not the approach I intend to take.  I don’t have a huge amount of capital – in situations like this I have a bit of an advantage as I can get out of positions nimbly and ideally get out and back in again where I see a chance.

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Brexit Vote – liquidating positions SGI, VTU

Looks like I was right about the brexit vote – very glad I put the Hedging FTSE250 trade on last night.

Wished I had put on more – it was a damn good trade, many ways to play – buy gold, currency trade.  Often how I do it I am just not aggressive enough!

I didn’t believe my portfolio or the markets generally would behave as they have – Japan was down 8% !

FTSE 250 down 8.2% as of writing.

I have exited Stanley Gibbons, and most of Vertu.  I have also exited a good bit of Tribal (at an awful price) and some SIHL.

This puts me to a position of c25%+ cash and a FTSE250 short covering 25% of the remaining portfolio.

I am down 4% on the day in GBP so it could be much worse – though if you value the portfolio in USD or EUR I am down probably over 10%.

Key question now is how long do I stay out and when / if I go back in…  Put in a small Eurostox long – I dont think Brexit means the 50 biggest Euro stocks are worth 9% less than yesterday

I am concerned I don’t sell out relatively low then end up buying in higher, equally I dont want to sit out a long / slow fall in prices…

I think on balance I should have probably not sold some things I sold but then equally I am not convinced this is the bottom.

SGI – 36% loss, VTU – 16% loss.

Shorting FTSE 250

Just before the close I have decided to do a short term trade shorting the FTSE 250 – to cover much of my UK exposure.  30% of portfolio.

Given we are near highs for 2016 on FTSE 250 and are up a great deal in the last week I think “good news” for the markets of BREMAIN is in the price – if we get a brexit vote I could make a lot.

Probabilities are not in my favour – I recon I will probably loose on this, but I wont loose much 1-2% on the position and if it goes my way I will make a lot – possibly 10-15%.

My portfolio is a natural hedge as it will probably rise if there is a bremain vote…

Tejoori – Bit more Hidden Value Found – could still be a 4 Bagger

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Unusual for me to post 3 times in a day – but this one was too good to miss and I don’t want some guy on twitter beating me to it and claiming the credit.

Just been working the numbers on Tejoori and noticed something I thought I would share…

The recent RNS said a recent Arjan plot with a book value of $4.3m sold for $6.5m – a 48% uplift.

The remaining Arjan plots are in the books for $9.5m if one applies a similar uplift you get to $14.14m.

They hold cash of $3.5m and Bekon is listed as for sale at £3.35m.

What is interesting is the next bit – they have a receivable -valued at $3.1m in the Arjan Projects. Continue reading

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