Review of 2016 + 33%

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2016 is almost over so I thought I would go through what worked, what didnt and my plans for 2017.

+33% is OK – FTSE100 is up 14%, 250 up 3% AIM all share 14%.  Peak to trough draw-downs across these are about 10% where as my portfolio (OK measured monthly) was only down 5% from peak at its worst.

My review of 2015 is interesting putting this in context.  I anticipated that TRB and SIHL would do well but not that I would come up with other good ideas or that TJI would do well.

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Tau Capital – small but good upside potential (100%+)

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Bought a tiny bit of this…

It is a tiny (£2.1m) investment trust.

It has  $1.4m (£1.1m) in cash (30/6/2016 HY report) – this doesnt screen well as it is held via a subsidiary….

The rest is a 24% stake in Stopharm and a 16.35% stake held via a convertible bridge loan.  This is valued at $6m (£4.8m) in the books based on an indicative offer.  In total this gives an upside of over 150%.  IF we get to NAV.

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Dolphin Capital $DCI – bit fishy but worth a try…

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Bought some DCI a couple of weeks ago at 7.25 – 4.7% portfolio weight.  Picked up more today at 8p – now a 6.8% portfolio weight.  They released an RNS in Mid November – basically selling property and paying down debt.  I thought this significantly derisked the company.  On Friday 2nd they announced an EGM – they are moving into liquidation mode.

They are a resort development company.  They have just sold Playa Grande at 10% below Nav and paid down debt.  They now have a debt to total assets ratio of 18.5%. Factsheet is here.

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New Investment – Produce Investments Limited – Cheap Potatoes

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Produce Investment (PIL.L) is a vertically integrated potato farmer.  They grow and process potatoes for major supermarkets.  In particular, they produce Jersey Royal Potatoes.

They trade at a forecast PE of 6.  They have a free cash flow yield of about 10%.  The net tangible asset value is about £35m against a market cap of £40m.

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Closed Emergent Capital – 12% loss

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Frustratingly changed my mind on Emergent Capital. original post here.

I’m concerned about debt level / lack of liquidity and the fact the company has 9 months (approx) opex on hand.  I wasnt right about my initial belief red falcon had liquidity available – I’d misread the statement.

There is an opportunity with the strategic alternatives process for this to do very well but re-reading this – the possibilities are not all are positive.  It has also now been over 3 months – should have been done.

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Closed Trump Trades – Frustrating minor Loss

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Just closed all Trump Trades – Short S&P, Long gold / Long silver, Total Loss of 0.45% Total Capital.

Very frustrating to anticipate this correctly then not make any money.  Still it is all experience.  Should have been much quicker in taking profit rather than running and also stayed up to watch conciliatory victory speech / set an alert or limit…

I am amazed market has more or less rallied to where it was the day before following one of the biggest political upsets in the last 100 years.

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Trump Trades – Short S&P500, Long Gold / Silver, Currency trade TBD

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This is a simple bet.

If Trump gets in, at least for the first week S&P down 10-15%, gold up 10%, USD down 5-10%, I also think bonds could surprise on the downside.  Then the markets realise he actually has very little power and everything goes back up again – if the president had power Obama would have achieved more.

If Hillary gets in very little happens, up 5% maybe, tops… Trump supporters could start civil disobedience if they think the election was stolen – in which case we go down a touch and I win anyway.

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New position Emergent Capital EMG 100%-150% upside

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Just bought some Emergent Capital at $2.90 a share (yet another truly awful fill) -7.4% portfolio weight EDIT 8/11/2016 *Cut to 3.7%*.  This, in essence is a portfolio of life insurance policies.  It is trading at a market cap of about $76m.  The NAV is $220m so there is the potential for a near tripling in value.

This has been written up on Seeking Alpha and in the Value Investor’s club.  I havent read the Seeking Alpha one (no subscription).

The key facts are:

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$SMIN – selling half @1419 +50% profit

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Sold half my Smiths a few days ago…

Original post here https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/smiths-industries-large-conglomerate-discount/

Price has risen about 50% making it a much less attractive idea.  They are also considering aquisitions – something I instinctively dont like.

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Fox Marble #FOX – Catalysts Coming

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Just put on a very small (2.5% portfolio weight) position in Fox Marble (bought at 9.67p).  This isn’t my usual cup of tea but I have a feeling it could do very well.  I also think it could go to zero so I am being very cautious.

This is a Kosovan Marble producer.  They have quarries with access to 300m cubic meters of marble.  They are currently trading at a market cap of £18.5m.  They have had lots of issues getting their factory up and running.  Some equipment was destroyed in a fire and they have consistently over promised and under delivered…. I think soon the worst of this will be behind them.

I think they can turn it round as they are achieving very strong sales growth – up from 110k 6m ending June 2015 to  262k 6m ending 2016.  The problems they appear to have encountered are not insurmountable and I am not too concerned. They seem to be achieving orders / sales.  They have net assets of £10m of which 1.3m is net cash.  The auditor is PWC.  There is no one dominant shareholder. Continue reading