Exiting KR1 – 4.5p +15% – not enough upside

Tags

, ,

Exited KR1.  The price went up a bit from my entry at 3.75.  Coupled with this, the price of the underlying crypto fell quite a lot – 20-30% following China’s ban on ICO’s.  Nothing like good timing – and this was nothing like good timing….

This left it at a discount of about 10% at one point, so I wasnt inclined to hold.  There has also been quite a bit of selling of KR1 – today all trades were pretty much sells…

Continue reading

Advertisements

Kryptonite 1 (KR1)- Cryptocurrency Investment Trust?

Tags

, , ,

Just put a small weight in the somewhat oddly named Kryptonite 1.

This is a very small (£3.4m) market cap company.  It invests in the blockchain ecosystem.

I am investing in this as tracking the current value of their holdings on http://www.coinmarketcap.com you can see that they are worth about double the existing market cap.

Continue reading

Cryptocurrency

Tags

, , , , , ,

Quiet few months for me – its been very hard to find good ideas.

This has led me to look outside the beaten path and I have decided to put a small portfolio weight in bitcoin / related cryptocurrency. I’ve somewhat changed my mind on this.  I did think of them as tulips.  Now I think they might not be, and even if they are – there is opportunity for money to be made.  All one needs to do is double your money and sell half – in crypto world an easy thing to do, and its all free from there.

Continue reading

DUPD – exiting at just over 15p – c+14%

Tags

, ,

Just exited my Dragon Ukrainian Property position at a touch over 15p.  This is a pretty disappointing result.  It is far less than the company’s NAV which is more than double this amount.

The tender offer has been accepted by over 50% (59.61%) of the shareholders at 15p.  This means it will happen.  The remaining shareholders have until August the first to tender (brokers may have earlier deadlines)   If more than 75% accept it’s likely the company will be delisted, if 90% accept the minority gets squeezed out.

Continue reading

Tejoori 37c tender offer – don’t accept, its worth almost double…

Tags

, ,

Just got a notice from my broker – Hargreaves Lansdown that there has been a 0.37c tender offer for all of Tejoori from Southey Capital Ltd.

There havent been any RNS’s about this so many in the market may not yet know.

I have had a think about this and I won’t be accepting.

Continue reading

$DDDD 4D Pharma – an experiment

Tags

, ,

A couple of weeks ago I bought a very small (just over 1%) (probably too small) portfolio weight in 4D Pharma at 247p per share.

This is very much an experiment for me – its the first pharma stock I have ever bought in my 17 years investing.

DDDD are a company involved in developing remedies related to bio-theraputics.  This is using the body’s own bacteria / product of that bacteria to heal.  They are initially focused on gastrointestinal issues.

I have something of an interest in this as I suffer a bit from my stomach which has been seriously helped by taking probiotic bacteria…  This means I know the underlying logic is sound – this stuff can be used to help people.  What I don’t know is if 4d will be able to successfully apply this but it derisks it in my mind.  I think some level of success as these guys are effectively using what is already in the body to repair it.

4D are backed by a successful UK fund manager Neil Woodford he holds 27% of the shares.

They have completed first stage (safety) clinical trials of their blautix drug they said:

IBS patients receiving Blautix showed an increase in microbiome diversity and microbiome stability that was comparable to healthy controls. Conversely, as expected, IBS patients receiving placebo showed a reduction in microbiome diversity and exhibited microbiome instability over the period of the trial. This result may be indicative of a relevant therapeutic effect of Blautix and will be investigated further in phase II clinical studies scheduled for 2017.

They have a pipeline of other drugs / diagnostics based on the same underlying ideas / technologies (below).  This means lots of scope for good news.Pipeline

Another couple of things I like is that they have been working on developing tools / methods of developing their technology.  Its near impossible for me to assess the accuracy of what the are saying / likely value but they have been buying research companies / tools so it seems on the level.

They have 68m cash and a market cap of 168m – enough to do quite a bit of work and I think they are cheap at this price for the potential opportunity – although it is very hard to value.

I’d like to emphasise this is very much a punt.  Having said that my last biotech idea (which I didnt do) was Hutchinson China Meditech – I lived in China so knew Chinese medicine worked and there was opportunity there.  It went from £5 to £35.

I hear about lots of people making money on pharma / biotech.  As ever with investment people like to talk about winners, not so much losers….  This is one I intend to buy (small) and forget about.

With markets getting higher my usual investment staple of winding up investment trusts are getting harder to find.  I need to get developing new investment skills and trying new things…  Any advice / book recommendations on this sort of investment from my readers would be gratefully received…

 

$TRB – closing Tribal +57% / +200%

Tags

, , ,

Closed the last of my Tribal at about 79.  This is over 200% of my entry cost, however I only made 57% over the total position.

This is somewhat mitigated by the large size – at peak this was 20%+ of my portfolio.  This pretty much made it that I had to sell all the way up.  I have a rule that I dont go above 20-30% weights. Might be one to think about as it means I am not enjoying the full result of rapidly compounding shares but on the other hand it manages risk…  I think improving this aspect of my investing should be a focus going forwards.

It was very large when I started so I sold out all the way up.

I think at the current prices a recovery is very well priced in.  Even if we believe there is going to be a good recovery in margins to 10% – which they have struggled to reach then we get to a multiple that’s pretty high.  I should have looked at this / sold in the 90s and to some degree am reacting to the recent dip in the share price…

Continue reading

DUPD – free put option on offer ?

Just bought quite a lot more DUPD – at an average price of just over 13p. .

I covered DUPD in a number of posts…

The investment managers Dragon capital have bought 10.69% from J&T Securities Management Limited this means they hold over 30% so need to make an offer at 13p for the rest of the company according to the takeover code.

I have bought as we are awaiting details of their offer.  I strongly suspect it will be higher than 13p, and even if it isnt, given that the bid price is at 13p you can just buy and sell the shares back for almost what you paid – getting a lot of optionality and paying next to nothing for it.

***EDIT 8/6 Offer details out at 13p. Needs 50% acceptances to be valid. Independent directors still to report so still chance they could raise over 13p. Have sold a bit and now wouldn’t add to this…***

https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2016/02/05/dupd-it-trading-at-near-cash-value-discount-of-75/

https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2014/01/27/dupd-he-who-turns-and-runs-away/

https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2014/01/23/dupd-beginning-to-realise-but-price-not-rising/

Figures are laughably out of date but the argument still applies.  This is an out of favour, liquidating investment trust.  I have held it since February last year.

Short story behind this is that lots of money was raised at the top, invested and now we are picking through the remains.

There are reasons to suspect assets could be underpriced on the balance sheet.  Against the market they value their Arricano shopping centre holding at a discount of 70% OK its illiquid but I’m not sure its that illiquid.  They hold lots of little bits of land – near impossible to value as an outsider.  Even if we trust their valuations – which I dont, the company is worth $48m, I also notice on the balance sheet they have a large amount of accumulated losses ($225m), not at all sure as to the position in Ukranian tax, but this might be worth something for somebody.  This suggests losses can be carried forwards indefinitely in the Ukraine…

At the current price the offer is worth $17.62m.  Independent directors to me seem unlikely to recommend accepting an offer for less than 37% of what the company is worth, but I’ve been surprised before…

Further, large shareholders may no longer want the company managed by an investment manager which wants to take it off their hands and the inherent conflict of interest this could create.

Newsfeeds / volume today was very interesting.

Lars Earnst Bader (Hedge fund guy) busy buying all day at 13p went from 10.9% in the morning got to 15% as at close of business.

Other shareholders are Goldman Sachs at 15.5% and Guy Thomas / Hazell Carr Edwards FURB – 3.68%.

I think there is an element of risk on both sides, the investment management agreement expires in December 2018.  As a related party management can’t extend it themselves.  They dont have the votes to delist / do too much else unpleasant. particularly with the nature of the other shareholders, as Ukraine’s largest investment bank its well worth them owning this and equally its not in the interest of other holders to be too unreasonable as they can’t properly monetise it or manage it either….  I would also hope that as a large Ukrainian investment bank they would have a bit of a reputation to uphold so can’t behave too badly…

I strongly suspect a higher offer will follow.

There is some risk here, it is possible for the takeover panel to waive the requirement to make an offer (I dont think they will).  It is also putting money into ukraine – not the most stable part of the world.

My holding has increased from 2.7% of my portfolio to 13% and I am considering upping it further on weakness

*EDIT 8/6/2014 – see comment above, now not as attractive as I thought…

Alternative Liqudity Fund – adding a touch

Tags

, ,

Added a touch to this at 17c last week…

It has done very nicely since I bought – returning 7.5c when I paid 13c for the shares to start with, hopefully the returns of cash will continue..

See original post for investment case…

https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2016/08/21/alf-net-assets-6x-market-cap-cash-half-market-cap-potential-5-bag-opportunity/

Continue reading