Dolphin Capital $DCI – reentered

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Have just bought back in to DCI at 6.3p 4.4% portfolio weight.  I am easing up on weights a bit as I have not had a particularly good run of ideas of late, better to be careful before I get my mojo back!

Quick refresh this is a luxury resort developer, mostly in Grece I bought in Dec 2016 before selling out at evens in April 2017.

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Tau – Vote no on Giveaway Sale

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Just received a rather disappointing RNS from TAU.

To summarize they hold about $1m Cash and Stopharm – a Kazakhstan pharmacy.

They are suspended as they couldnt publish their results – being unable to value Stopharm. Continue reading

Loss after Loss – Origo -33%/-67%/ Polo / Tau

Things haven’t been going well for me of late.

Origo has proven to be a disasterous investment – mitigated a touch by me getting out relatively early but worsened by absoloutely no liquidity relative to my size.  My original investment thesis is here.  I thought that the prefs could be redeemed and that the NAV was possible / there was payout potential.  The evidence for this was a balance sheet in theory worth about $80m when I got in vs a capitalisation of 23m across the prefs and ordinaries – so potential for a decent return.

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Portfolio Update – Selling PIL 0%, Trim OPP/P, TJI +500-1000%

Quick portfolio update.

Selling PIL – I am a bit concerned that they might struggle to meet debt covenants due to a poor harvest.  I have had a couple of year’s dividends on this – so am actually up c5% in total. I sold for what I bought them for.  Little disappointing but these things happen.

I am also easing up on OPP / OPPP – they are going impairment crazy, just after I bought.  Weight was maybe a little too much.

I also bought in a touch of DUPD again – didnt get round to posting on they distributed – made a little on it.  Breaking my own rule on this as it is majority owned now – but I think they will delist / pay out eventually….

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OPP/P – Origo Prefs / Ordinaries

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Just bought a reasonable chunk (c6% portfolio weight) in Origo Prefs and a similar- c6% weight in the ordinaries.

Origo is a Chinese private equity investment trust. As you might imagine when you hear the words ‘AIM listed Chinese private equity trust’ performance has been disasterous. c500p in mid 2011 has become c1.5p now.  Putting a lighter to your money would probably have given you a better return.

In theory the ordinary has a NAV of 9p a share (June results) vs a market price of 1.5p –  so a decent return from here.

I am going for the prefs – trading at 0.30c vs hopefully a redemption at $1.00 – or a 3x return as well as the ordinaries.

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More Crypto – sold KR1 / direct holdings, shorting Tether

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Exited all my crypto holdings gradually over the past month or two.  I was lucky enough to be able to sell quite big chunks in early January.  Some of these are up over 10X but they were only ever a very small portfolio weight.

There is too much froth / junk / fraud in the market and I dont see downwards trend reversing any time soon.  I think there needs to be a big clear out before we can get decent rises.

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PVCS – selling half -7% Taking too long

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Selling half of my PVCS at a c7% loss.

Their strategic review is taking too long.  In addition I was over optimistic / didnt put enough thought/work into my estimate of closure costs which I now believe could be a lot more than the €2m I guessed.

This might reduce my upside quite a bit and the delay on the strategic review is making my nervous so I am lightening this up substantially.

Selling KMG +33%

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Selling all my KMG today.

Tender offer has been made for $14.00.  Slight unanticipated problem is that Kazakhstan has 20% withholding tax and to get it net of tax I need to submit an array of documents via my broker and trust that no-one along that chain messes up / decides I am liable for 20% tax.

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2017 Performance c+37%, Not bad, but never enough….

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Just done my final performance numbers for 2017 – I recon the figure will come out at +c37%.

This isnt bad compared to FTSE AS Total return in GBP of 12%.  Volatility has been minimal – maximum monthly drawdown was 3.8%.

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