2022 Review – Worst Year to date, -10% / -34%

So time for my usual review of the year. As ever, I’m not writing this exactly at the end of the year so figures may be a bit fuzzy, in general they are pretty accurate.

As expected, it hasn’t been a good one. If you assume all my MOEX stocks are worth 0 I am down 34%, if you take the MOEX stocks at their current value I am down c10%. This is very rough, I also have various GDR’s and a reasonable weight in JEMA – formerly JP Morgan Russian. So if all Russian stocks are a 0 you can probably knock another 3-5% off.

My traditional charts / table are below – including figures *roughly* assuming Russian holdings are worth 0. It’s a little more complex than this as there are pretty substantial dividends in a blocked account in Russia and quite a few GDR’s valued at nominal values, I could easily be up 10-20% if you assume the world goes back to ‘normal’ and my assets are not seized, although at present this seems a distant prospect.

H1 Performance 0%, -30%, depending on your point of view

Thought I would give a brief update on what I have been up to the last few months. Overall I am flat, simply looking at brokerage statements, if we assume my Russian illiquid holdings are worth 0 I am down about 30%. Actually looking at this a week later I am down c8%, things are so volatile it can easily go either way.

2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%

On to my usual review of the year (last years here). We are slightly shy of the full year end but I recon I am up about 20.5%. This is in my usual 20-22% range. It is below that of the (not comparable) NASDAQ (at 27% (in USD) and behind the S&P500 – at 25.82% (in USD). The UK All share was 17.9% and the FTSE 100 was at 18.1%. There has been a decrease in market breadth which is traditionally a sign of a top. Index performance in the US is driven by tech and healthcare, sectors which I hold next to nothing in, so to *roughly* keep up given my idiosyncratic portfolio is actually a sign of strength. One can’t sensibly benchmark my portfolio against anything as it’s just so odd, but I need to so that I can determine whether I am wasting my time.

Q3 2020 Review +12%, + 39% YTD

A very quiet quarter for me. I have made very few changes. This is being written a few days before the end of September so figures may differ slightly, but baring an unexpected disaster / triumph this is roughly where I will be…

• Got rid of EOS Russia – no real reason – it just hadn’t performed well and a realized loss is good to manage my CGT position. I may well re-enter.
• Sold some Beximco on a ridiculous spike buying some of it back lower down – I will refill my position again lower down.
• Sold a bit of CMC Markets – as my position was a bit big and wanted to buy other things.
• Sold half my SERE on a dip – this was an unwise panicking out on something of a headfake. Could be summer ‘silly season’ low volume move. I am noticing more stocks than usual falling with no reason.
• Sold half GPSS to take some profit.
• Most impactful change was buying 4D Pharma in the placement. This has done brilliantly for me – more later.

My portfolio is below:

Q1 Portfolio/Performance update (+11%) Coronavirus and thoughts on where to go from here

Lots going on in the portfolio so I thought I would give a quick update.

At the end of Q1 I was +4% ytd, now (14/4/2020) I am c+11%.  This should be compared to the index which is -c22% now, at the low I was down c5% for the year. I feel a little bad posting this as lots of this is from non-usual (for me) trades… Many of these, I put on Twitter, unfortunately, I can’t post everything as it may move prices against me, particularly where I only sell half.  I know many of you are not twitter followers.  If you would like an e-mail when I tweet there is a service for that here.

Porfolio Review Q1 2019

Quick Portfolio Review – Q1 has been pretty poor for me – up 1.3%. vs 9% for the FTSE All share.

This is despite being up at various points.  My general policy of not runing a stop loss has hurt me.  It might be time on my more liquid holdings to consider putting stop losses in.  This is very much a function of where we are in the cycle – likely near the top / end and not a general policy.  Whilst some people would say that not having stop losses is irredemably reckless I would disagree.

2018 Performance / Portfolio Review -13%, could be worse

As 2018 is almost over I think it’s time to review the portfolio and performance.

Overall result is -13%. Somewhat depends on calculations –  I use broker day end values.  so more or less… This can be compared to -9.7% FTSE all share (total return), far below my 30% target for the year.  Many ideas havent worked this year so what has saved me is profit which was really from 2017 and rolled over the year end in the calculation – particularly Tejoori.

Long term performance has been strong – still 7X up over the last 10 years – long term chart below:

2017 Performance c+37%, Not bad, but never enough….

Just done my final performance numbers for 2017 – I recon the figure will come out at +c37%.

This isnt bad compared to FTSE AS Total return in GBP of 12%.  Volatility has been minimal – maximum monthly drawdown was 3.8%.

$DDDD 4D Pharma – an experiment

A couple of weeks ago I bought a very small (just over 1%) (probably too small) portfolio weight in 4D Pharma at 247p per share.

This is very much an experiment for me – its the first pharma stock I have ever bought in my 17 years investing.

DDDD are a company involved in developing remedies related to bio-theraputics.  This is using the body’s own bacteria / product of that bacteria to heal.  They are initially focused on gastrointestinal issues.