Closed Trump Trades – Frustrating minor Loss

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Just closed all Trump Trades – Short S&P, Long gold / Long silver, Total Loss of 0.45% Total Capital.

Very frustrating to anticipate this correctly then not make any money.  Still it is all experience.  Should have been much quicker in taking profit rather than running and also stayed up to watch conciliatory victory speech / set an alert or limit…

I am amazed market has more or less rallied to where it was the day before following one of the biggest political upsets in the last 100 years.

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Trump Trades – Short S&P500, Long Gold / Silver, Currency trade TBD

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This is a simple bet.

If Trump gets in, at least for the first week S&P down 10-15%, gold up 10%, USD down 5-10%, I also think bonds could surprise on the downside.  Then the markets realise he actually has very little power and everything goes back up again – if the president had power Obama would have achieved more.

If Hillary gets in very little happens, up 5% maybe, tops… Trump supporters could start civil disobedience if they think the election was stolen – in which case we go down a touch and I win anyway.

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New position Emergent Capital EMG 100%-150% upside

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Just bought some Emergent Capital at $2.90 a share (yet another truly awful fill) -7.4% portfolio weight EDIT 8/11/2016 *Cut to 3.7%*.  This, in essence is a portfolio of life insurance policies.  It is trading at a market cap of about $76m.  The NAV is $220m so there is the potential for a near tripling in value.

This has been written up on Seeking Alpha and in the Value Investor’s club.  I havent read the Seeking Alpha one (no subscription).

The key facts are:

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$SMIN – selling half @1419 +50% profit

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Sold half my Smiths a few days ago…

Original post here https://deepvalueinvestments.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/smiths-industries-large-conglomerate-discount/

Price has risen about 50% making it a much less attractive idea.  They are also considering aquisitions – something I instinctively dont like.

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Fox Marble #FOX – Catalysts Coming

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Just put on a very small (2.5% portfolio weight) position in Fox Marble (bought at 9.67p).  This isn’t my usual cup of tea but I have a feeling it could do very well.  I also think it could go to zero so I am being very cautious.

This is a Kosovan Marble producer.  They have quarries with access to 300m cubic meters of marble.  They are currently trading at a market cap of £18.5m.  They have had lots of issues getting their factory up and running.  Some equipment was destroyed in a fire and they have consistently over promised and under delivered…. I think soon the worst of this will be behind them.

I think they can turn it round as they are achieving very strong sales growth – up from 110k 6m ending June 2015 to  262k 6m ending 2016.  The problems they appear to have encountered are not insurmountable and I am not too concerned. They seem to be achieving orders / sales.  They have net assets of £10m of which 1.3m is net cash.  The auditor is PWC.  There is no one dominant shareholder. Continue reading

Ecofin Water and Power Opportunities – low risk opportunity $ECWO

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Saw this and it struck me as a good opportunity…

Ecofin Water and Power is an investment trust.  It has just gone to a continuation vote and to get the vote through management has proposed the trust is split into:

  1. A liquid vehicle with liquid investments.
  2. An illiquid realisation vehicle to be wound up within two years -14.1% April 2016 NAV.
  3. A cash option – of up to 50% of NAV.

Details are here.

The trust is currently trading at a discount of 16% to a NAV including realisation costs.  I suspect post realisation this discount will have narrowed – I would anticipate a c10% profit on this within a month or two, should the vote go through…

UPDATE:

I should add below is based on a NAV of 163p – since then it has fallen to 157p… Some may be due to dividend payment / changes in calculation methodology but makes opportunity slightly less attractive than outlined below….

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Tejoori Sells Bekon Holding

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EDIT – 24/8/2016 RNS Today has basically said Bekon was sold for $0.  This invalidates much of but not all of the below – still plenty of cash and land plots to be sold…

Tejoori has sold their holding in Bekon – this is in the books for $3.35m.

This is worth 12c per share at book.  Since Monday, when I suspect smarter people than me picked up on the news the share is up about 12c – 16c depending on how you look at the spread….

Details are here.  Its a 100% sale but we dont know the price.

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ALF – Net Assets 6X Market Cap, Cash half Market Cap, Potential 5 bag opportunity…

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Just put in a 7% portfolio position on the Alternative Liquidity fund at $0.13 – henceforth known as ALF…

18/12/2016 ** WARNING – This share has now paid out $0.075c and is trading at more than I bought it for – now it is much less attractive.  I continue to hold.

This is where Hedge funds go to die, its a fund of side pockets and other iliquid investments.  But its got 5c in cash and much of the rest of the NAV should come eventually, NAV is 0.86c per share.  This discount is extreme, if only one or two investments pay off you get your money back at current prices.  I believe the chances of this are very good.

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Tejoori – Anyone interested in some activism ?

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I may be interested in engaging with management in a more forceful manner.

In particular i am concerned with management’s statement in their last RNS that they will use funds raised:

for Tejoori to investigate further investment opportunities in line with its investing policy”

If you guys could contact me via the website with your holdings (in shares) I can have some idea how many people would support action on this and how many votes I may or may not have.

Every little helps – I believe according to the articles that 10% is needed to propose a resolution.

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Brexit – Long USD, Exit Titon +3%, Keeping FTSE250 Short on, cut WCW

Still selling thing here and there.  I am not convinced that the market will rebound swiftly from this.

Sold a bit of WCW – asset managers are generally down, Exited Titon – I think this may be the beginning of the end of the property bubble which will hurt them eventually…

Lots of things looked quite expensive before the vote so there is lots of scope for it to fall.  We are not near capitulation, equally we are not near a political resolution – so I think we are going to keep falling.

Now many would say I shouldn’t sell out – that I should let the long run take its course and wait it out.  This is not the approach I intend to take.  I don’t have a huge amount of capital – in situations like this I have a bit of an advantage as I can get out of positions nimbly and ideally get out and back in again where I see a chance.

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