2022 Review – Worst Year to date, -10% / -34%

So time for my usual review of the year. As ever, I’m not writing this exactly at the end of the year so figures may be a bit fuzzy, in general they are pretty accurate.

As expected, it hasn’t been a good one. If you assume all my MOEX stocks are worth 0 I am down 34%, if you take the MOEX stocks at their current value I am down c10%. This is very rough, I also have various GDR’s and a reasonable weight in JEMA – formerly JP Morgan Russian. So if all Russian stocks are a 0 you can probably knock another 3-5% off.

My traditional charts / table are below – including figures *roughly* assuming Russian holdings are worth 0. It’s a little more complex than this as there are pretty substantial dividends in a blocked account in Russia and quite a few GDR’s valued at nominal values, I could easily be up 10-20% if you assume the world goes back to ‘normal’ and my assets are not seized, although at present this seems a distant prospect.

JP Morgan Russian – saying they won’t issue shares – still vote No to everything.

JP Morgan issued an RNS today saying there are “currently no plans to issue shares or raise capital”.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JRS/update-on-proposals-for-new-investment-objective/15704505

I don’t like the use of the word ‘currently’, as, if they write the plans tomorrow its technically not an untrue statement.

I simply do not trust them and think the fund should be delisted, surplus cash paid out and frozen until such a time as we can get our money out at a reasonable valuation – which I would define as MOEX +/- 10%. I am very aware this may take several years but am nothing if not patient. There is some movement amonst shareholders to put forward a resolution limiting their ability to dispose of Russian stocks – if something like this is proposed I will support it.

There is no advantage to making this a live investment vehicle with 41p/share live assets, coupled with an unvaluable (in effect) amount of Russian stock.

This simply isnt a sensible plan and should still be voted against at the earliest opportunity.

$JRS – Cheap but vote against Name / Mandate change, Oil and Gas also Shorts

Brief note on something I have tweeted about a bit and update on what I have been up to…

I have a decent sided position in JP Morgan Russian (c4% weight – if you assume all my other Russian holdings are a 0), it would be a lot bigger – but I already have c 25% all portfolio weight in Russia and there is only so much I am willing to lose if I am wrong on one idea.

H1 Performance 0%, -30%, depending on your point of view

Thought I would give a brief update on what I have been up to the last few months. Overall I am flat, simply looking at brokerage statements, if we assume my Russian illiquid holdings are worth 0 I am down about 30%. Actually looking at this a week later I am down c8%, things are so volatile it can easily go either way.

Russia invasion of Ukraine – Worst investing day ever -c25-30% ytd

Just done my best estimates of my portfolio value today. It isn’t looking pretty, down 25%. My worst ever day by a country mile.

Firstly, it should be noted I am not a supporter of this invasion. I would prefer it if Russia hadn’t invaded. I think they have legitimate concerns regarding NATO membership. It isn’t purely a defensive alliance but a full takeover was not the way to get those concerns taken seriously. I hope both the Russian and Ukrainian people thrive and prosper. Ultimately I invest in stocks to make money and try to do so dispassionately and rationally. Some people find this cold / challenging / upsetting, particularly once lives are lost. I try to remove any moral grounds from anything I do in investing. I didn’t cause this crisis, where my money is has nothing to do with who/what I support. I’m just a guy making the best of the world I find myself in…

2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%

On to my usual review of the year (last years here). We are slightly shy of the full year end but I recon I am up about 20.5%. This is in my usual 20-22% range. It is below that of the (not comparable) NASDAQ (at 27% (in USD) and behind the S&P500 – at 25.82% (in USD). The UK All share was 17.9% and the FTSE 100 was at 18.1%. There has been a decrease in market breadth which is traditionally a sign of a top. Index performance in the US is driven by tech and healthcare, sectors which I hold next to nothing in, so to *roughly* keep up given my idiosyncratic portfolio is actually a sign of strength. One can’t sensibly benchmark my portfolio against anything as it’s just so odd, but I need to so that I can determine whether I am wasting my time.

Lenenergo Prefs – 10-15% yield & EOS Russia – Adventures in Russian Grids

I bought Lenenergo Prefs last week at an average of 168. This is a 3% weight, I am also re-entering EOS Russia – a fund holding Russian grid companies, also at a 3% weight.

Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, possibility of invasion not priced in

I’ve decided to sell up on most of my Russian / Ukranian stocks.

HYDR, FXPO, SIBN, RSTI, GLTR.

I am holding on to FEES (Russian Electricity grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I can take the pain on this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout news announced today implies *potentially* a very high yield.

I am increasingly concerned there will be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up seems long/ sustained for a ‘training exercise’. If they go home without doing anything Putin will look weak.

I also note last year their western district held intensive training exercises as well.

He will be especially wary of talk of Ukraine joining Nato, in Russian terms this is equivalent to Canada joining the Warsaw pact – something that can’t be allowed to happen!

Q1 Portfolio/Performance update (+11%) Coronavirus and thoughts on where to go from here

Lots going on in the portfolio so I thought I would give a quick update.

At the end of Q1 I was +4% ytd, now (14/4/2020) I am c+11%.  This should be compared to the index which is -c22% now, at the low I was down c5% for the year. I feel a little bad posting this as lots of this is from non-usual (for me) trades… Many of these, I put on Twitter, unfortunately, I can’t post everything as it may move prices against me, particularly where I only sell half.  I know many of you are not twitter followers.  If you would like an e-mail when I tweet there is a service for that here.

Rosetti ($RSTI) / $FEES – Russian Grids at bargain prices

I bought both of these the other week.  They are both very, very cheap and I believe are high quality assets that will rise in price as performance improves and Russia becomes a more ‘normal’ country.

 

FEES – Fsk Yees Pao is the largest grid company in Russia. 80% of the shares are owned by Rosetti, 88% of Rossetti shares are owned by the Russian government.  It is listed in Moscow and London via a GDR – I believe the Moscow shares are cheaper to buy and hold due to fees associated with the GDR. The likely yield is 8-10%.