H1 Performance 0%, -30%, depending on your point of view

Thought I would give a brief update on what I have been up to the last few months. Overall I am flat, simply looking at brokerage statements, if we assume my Russian illiquid holdings are worth 0 I am down about 30%. Actually looking at this a week later I am down c8%, things are so volatile it can easily go either way.

Continue reading “H1 Performance 0%, -30%, depending on your point of view”

Russia invasion of Ukraine – Worst investing day ever -c25-30% ytd

Just done my best estimates of my portfolio value today. It isn’t looking pretty, down 25%. My worst ever day by a country mile.

Firstly, it should be noted I am not a supporter of this invasion. I would prefer it if Russia hadn’t invaded. I think they have legitimate concerns regarding NATO membership. It isn’t purely a defensive alliance but a full takeover was not the way to get those concerns taken seriously. I hope both the Russian and Ukrainian people thrive and prosper. Ultimately I invest in stocks to make money and try to do so dispassionately and rationally. Some people find this cold / challenging / upsetting, particularly once lives are lost. I try to remove any moral grounds from anything I do in investing. I didn’t cause this crisis, where my money is has nothing to do with who/what I support. I’m just a guy making the best of the world I find myself in…

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2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%

On to my usual review of the year (last years here). We are slightly shy of the full year end but I recon I am up about 20.5%. This is in my usual 20-22% range. It is below that of the (not comparable) NASDAQ (at 27% (in USD) and behind the S&P500 – at 25.82% (in USD). The UK All share was 17.9% and the FTSE 100 was at 18.1%. There has been a decrease in market breadth which is traditionally a sign of a top. Index performance in the US is driven by tech and healthcare, sectors which I hold next to nothing in, so to *roughly* keep up given my idiosyncratic portfolio is actually a sign of strength. One can’t sensibly benchmark my portfolio against anything as it’s just so odd, but I need to so that I can determine whether I am wasting my time.

Continue reading “2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%”

Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, possibility of invasion not priced in

I’ve decided to sell up on most of my Russian / Ukranian stocks.

HYDR, FXPO, SIBN, RSTI, GLTR.

I am holding on to FEES (Russian Electricity grid Yield 8.5%+, P/E <4 and P/B<0.3 (I can take the pain on this), and GAZP as 50% dividend payout news announced today implies *potentially* a very high yield.

I am increasingly concerned there will be an invasion/incursion in Ukraine. This build-up seems long/ sustained for a ‘training exercise’. If they go home without doing anything Putin will look weak.

I also note last year their western district held intensive training exercises as well.

He will be especially wary of talk of Ukraine joining Nato, in Russian terms this is equivalent to Canada joining the Warsaw pact – something that can’t be allowed to happen!

Continue reading “Exiting Russian / Ukranian positions, possibility of invasion not priced in”

Q1 Portfolio/Performance update (+11%) Coronavirus and thoughts on where to go from here

Lots going on in the portfolio so I thought I would give a quick update.

At the end of Q1 I was +4% ytd, now (14/4/2020) I am c+11%.  This should be compared to the index which is -c22% now, at the low I was down c5% for the year. I feel a little bad posting this as lots of this is from non-usual (for me) trades… Many of these, I put on Twitter, unfortunately, I can’t post everything as it may move prices against me, particularly where I only sell half.  I know many of you are not twitter followers.  If you would like an e-mail when I tweet there is a service for that here.

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Rosetti ($RSTI) / $FEES – Russian Grids at bargain prices

I bought both of these the other week.  They are both very, very cheap and I believe are high quality assets that will rise in price as performance improves and Russia becomes a more ‘normal’ country.

 

FEES – Fsk Yees Pao is the largest grid company in Russia. 80% of the shares are owned by Rosetti, 88% of Rossetti shares are owned by the Russian government.  It is listed in Moscow and London via a GDR – I believe the Moscow shares are cheaper to buy and hold due to fees associated with the GDR. The likely yield is 8-10%. Continue reading “Rosetti ($RSTI) / $FEES – Russian Grids at bargain prices”

New Investment – RusHydro ( $HYDR)

Posted a few new investments on twitter that I thought I would update you on.  I have found Russia rich pickings for a lover of high yields and low PEs.

I wrote this a few weeks ago but didn’t get it posted as I have had an unfortunate festive flu – figures maybe a little more out of date than usual. I am long from 0.51 (Late October), (currently 0.5895 so +15% in a couple of months) but think there is still value, I literally bought a touch more on Friday.

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Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX)

As I tweeted the other day I have just bought some Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX). Increasingly I am tempted by low price, high quality companies in somewhat lower quality locations.

To me MOEX meets the quality bar.  It has a dominant market position being the only exchange in Russia, it has an EBITDA margin of over 70%, a net profit margin of c45%.  There hasnt been much growth in operating income over the past few years – but it doesnt really matter as this is very, very cheap.  It is trading on about twice book value and a PE of about 10. Continue reading “Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX)”

New Investment – Global trans

Just bought some Global Trans (GLTR.L) – 2.5% portfolio weight (I tweeted about it the other day) this is quite a nice little Russian investment.  They basically operate railway freight in Russia.  This is not without it’s risk.  But yield is very high – c16% in 2018, 2019 dividend of $1.45 (half paid already). PE is low – c5.4 for 2019.  It isn’t either that this is a company on the brink of bankruptcy either – net debt to EBITDA is c0.53 – RUB denominated, and the company has lots of railway freight assets – book value is c$4.7 per share vs a share price of c$8.7.

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