Brief run through new investments – HAUTO:OSL, CMCX.L, ASHM.L, VOD.L, ECH, EBOX.L

Aware I haven’t posted in a while – been busy as you can see below..

Overall it’s been a difficult year, natural resources not the place to be. Rough performance right now is looking to be roughly flat.

Had a busy last couple of months adding a number of positions to the portfolio which may be of interest. A little bit of a health warning is needed as many of my ideas haven’t been working out of late.

My favourite is probably HAUTO.OSL 0 Hoegh Autoliners. This provides car shipping. The market is tight and prices are high. In a insanely volatile / specialised market such as shipping I would usually stay clear but some of the growth in demand is in Chinese EV’s being shipped to Europe. EV’s are far cheaper in China than Europe (for the same model) and Chinese EV’s (in Europe) far cheaper than those produced in Europe. There is some talk of import restrictions by the EU. Apparently they are being subsidized / dumped – despite retail prices in China being far lower (for the same vehicle) than the EU. Shipping is a challenge. Some older lower rate contracts are rolling off – but they are not the most transparent on this if the market stays tight likely to be good revenue rises…

2022 Review – Worst Year to date, -10% / -34%

So time for my usual review of the year. As ever, I’m not writing this exactly at the end of the year so figures may be a bit fuzzy, in general they are pretty accurate.

As expected, it hasn’t been a good one. If you assume all my MOEX stocks are worth 0 I am down 34%, if you take the MOEX stocks at their current value I am down c10%. This is very rough, I also have various GDR’s and a reasonable weight in JEMA – formerly JP Morgan Russian. So if all Russian stocks are a 0 you can probably knock another 3-5% off.

My traditional charts / table are below – including figures *roughly* assuming Russian holdings are worth 0. It’s a little more complex than this as there are pretty substantial dividends in a blocked account in Russia and quite a few GDR’s valued at nominal values, I could easily be up 10-20% if you assume the world goes back to ‘normal’ and my assets are not seized, although at present this seems a distant prospect.

H1 Performance 0%, -30%, depending on your point of view

Thought I would give a brief update on what I have been up to the last few months. Overall I am flat, simply looking at brokerage statements, if we assume my Russian illiquid holdings are worth 0 I am down about 30%. Actually looking at this a week later I am down c8%, things are so volatile it can easily go either way.

2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%

On to my usual review of the year (last years here). We are slightly shy of the full year end but I recon I am up about 20.5%. This is in my usual 20-22% range. It is below that of the (not comparable) NASDAQ (at 27% (in USD) and behind the S&P500 – at 25.82% (in USD). The UK All share was 17.9% and the FTSE 100 was at 18.1%. There has been a decrease in market breadth which is traditionally a sign of a top. Index performance in the US is driven by tech and healthcare, sectors which I hold next to nothing in, so to *roughly* keep up given my idiosyncratic portfolio is actually a sign of strength. One can’t sensibly benchmark my portfolio against anything as it’s just so odd, but I need to so that I can determine whether I am wasting my time.

H1 2021 Review / Portfolio +13.8%

Thought I would do a review of where the portfolio stands.

As at end June I am +13.8% for the year, roughly matching the FTSE AS at c12%. it has been far more volatile than is usual, pre-fed comments on tightening sooner than the market expected, I was up closer to 20%. The volatility is driven by the large exposure to natural resource co’s and volatility resulting from their underlying commodity feeding through to share prices, which are, in turn, even more volatile.

Q3 2020 Review +12%, + 39% YTD

A very quiet quarter for me. I have made very few changes. This is being written a few days before the end of September so figures may differ slightly, but baring an unexpected disaster / triumph this is roughly where I will be…

• Got rid of EOS Russia – no real reason – it just hadn’t performed well and a realized loss is good to manage my CGT position. I may well re-enter.
• Sold some Beximco on a ridiculous spike buying some of it back lower down – I will refill my position again lower down.
• Sold a bit of CMC Markets – as my position was a bit big and wanted to buy other things.
• Sold half my SERE on a dip – this was an unwise panicking out on something of a headfake. Could be summer ‘silly season’ low volume move. I am noticing more stocks than usual falling with no reason.
• Sold half GPSS to take some profit.
• Most impactful change was buying 4D Pharma in the placement. This has done brilliantly for me – more later.

My portfolio is below:

Porfolio Review Q1 2019

Quick Portfolio Review – Q1 has been pretty poor for me – up 1.3%. vs 9% for the FTSE All share.

This is despite being up at various points.  My general policy of not runing a stop loss has hurt me.  It might be time on my more liquid holdings to consider putting stop losses in.  This is very much a function of where we are in the cycle – likely near the top / end and not a general policy.  Whilst some people would say that not having stop losses is irredemably reckless I would disagree.

Shanta Gold #SHG – Multiple catalysts, multiple risks, low valuation

Opened a very small, c1.2% portfolio weight position in Shanta Gold.

Shanta is a London-listed Tanzanian small cap production company. It has a 33m GBP market cap and is trading at a forward PE of around 2.6 / historic of 3.2 or EV/EBITDA of c2. (source).

The company is a standard, small, gold producer.  It has a good cost base – cash cost c $505/oz / all in cost of c$750/oz. There appears to be lots of opportunity in its holdings to expand production. They have just released an RNS valuing their Singida project at c $31m USD at a (highly optimistic) 8% discount rate. They say they will develop it at no cost to existing shareholders – as the company is worth c$44m Equity and c$35m  net debt this is potentially significant – even if we say it’s only worth c $20m.

Closed Trump Trades – Frustrating minor Loss

Just closed all Trump Trades – Short S&P, Long gold / Long silver, Total Loss of 0.45% Total Capital.

Very frustrating to anticipate this correctly then not make any money.  Still it is all experience.  Should have been much quicker in taking profit rather than running and also stayed up to watch conciliatory victory speech / set an alert or limit…

I am amazed market has more or less rallied to where it was the day before following one of the biggest political upsets in the last 100 years.

Trump Trades – Short S&P500, Long Gold / Silver, Currency trade TBD

This is a simple bet.

If Trump gets in, at least for the first week S&P down 10-15%, gold up 10%, USD down 5-10%, I also think bonds could surprise on the downside.  Then the markets realise he actually has very little power and everything goes back up again – if the president had power Obama would have achieved more.

If Hillary gets in very little happens, up 5% maybe, tops… Trump supporters could start civil disobedience if they think the election was stolen – in which case we go down a touch and I win anyway.