End of 2023 Review Dissapointing +0.8% / +5.4%

Usual end of year review here. It hasn’t gone well, overall +0.8 (excluding Russian frozen stocks) or +5.4% including Russian frozen stocks. If Russia goes back to normal will be up far more as there are a lot of dividends waiting to be collected, not included in the below.

Brief run through new investments – HAUTO:OSL, CMCX.L, ASHM.L, VOD.L, ECH, EBOX.L

Aware I haven’t posted in a while – been busy as you can see below..

Overall it’s been a difficult year, natural resources not the place to be. Rough performance right now is looking to be roughly flat.

Had a busy last couple of months adding a number of positions to the portfolio which may be of interest. A little bit of a health warning is needed as many of my ideas haven’t been working out of late.

My favourite is probably HAUTO.OSL 0 Hoegh Autoliners. This provides car shipping. The market is tight and prices are high. In a insanely volatile / specialised market such as shipping I would usually stay clear but some of the growth in demand is in Chinese EV’s being shipped to Europe. EV’s are far cheaper in China than Europe (for the same model) and Chinese EV’s (in Europe) far cheaper than those produced in Europe. There is some talk of import restrictions by the EU. Apparently they are being subsidized / dumped – despite retail prices in China being far lower (for the same vehicle) than the EU. Shipping is a challenge. Some older lower rate contracts are rolling off – but they are not the most transparent on this if the market stays tight likely to be good revenue rises…

New Investment – Anglo Eastern Plantations (AEP.L)

Added quite a bit to this and think it’s a better opportunity now than it has been for quite a while due to catalysts which appear round the corner.

As of writing its a c5% weight.

Brief summary, Anglo Eastern Plantations is a family holding company involved in palm oil plantations which has had a generational change of management, hopefully leading to a change in strategy. Lim Siew Kim held 51% and died on 14th July 2022. She was the daughter of the patriarch of the large Malaysian Genting group (mostly hotels).

2022 Review – Worst Year to date, -10% / -34%

So time for my usual review of the year. As ever, I’m not writing this exactly at the end of the year so figures may be a bit fuzzy, in general they are pretty accurate.

As expected, it hasn’t been a good one. If you assume all my MOEX stocks are worth 0 I am down 34%, if you take the MOEX stocks at their current value I am down c10%. This is very rough, I also have various GDR’s and a reasonable weight in JEMA – formerly JP Morgan Russian. So if all Russian stocks are a 0 you can probably knock another 3-5% off.

My traditional charts / table are below – including figures *roughly* assuming Russian holdings are worth 0. It’s a little more complex than this as there are pretty substantial dividends in a blocked account in Russia and quite a few GDR’s valued at nominal values, I could easily be up 10-20% if you assume the world goes back to ‘normal’ and my assets are not seized, although at present this seems a distant prospect.

JP Morgan Russian – saying they won’t issue shares – still vote No to everything.

JP Morgan issued an RNS today saying there are “currently no plans to issue shares or raise capital”.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/JRS/update-on-proposals-for-new-investment-objective/15704505

I don’t like the use of the word ‘currently’, as, if they write the plans tomorrow its technically not an untrue statement.

I simply do not trust them and think the fund should be delisted, surplus cash paid out and frozen until such a time as we can get our money out at a reasonable valuation – which I would define as MOEX +/- 10%. I am very aware this may take several years but am nothing if not patient. There is some movement amonst shareholders to put forward a resolution limiting their ability to dispose of Russian stocks – if something like this is proposed I will support it.

There is no advantage to making this a live investment vehicle with 41p/share live assets, coupled with an unvaluable (in effect) amount of Russian stock.

This simply isnt a sensible plan and should still be voted against at the earliest opportunity.

$JRS – Cheap but vote against Name / Mandate change, Oil and Gas also Shorts

Brief note on something I have tweeted about a bit and update on what I have been up to…

I have a decent sided position in JP Morgan Russian (c4% weight – if you assume all my other Russian holdings are a 0), it would be a lot bigger – but I already have c 25% all portfolio weight in Russia and there is only so much I am willing to lose if I am wrong on one idea.

H1 Performance 0%, -30%, depending on your point of view

Thought I would give a brief update on what I have been up to the last few months. Overall I am flat, simply looking at brokerage statements, if we assume my Russian illiquid holdings are worth 0 I am down about 30%. Actually looking at this a week later I am down c8%, things are so volatile it can easily go either way.

Russia invasion of Ukraine – Worst investing day ever -c25-30% ytd

Just done my best estimates of my portfolio value today. It isn’t looking pretty, down 25%. My worst ever day by a country mile.

Firstly, it should be noted I am not a supporter of this invasion. I would prefer it if Russia hadn’t invaded. I think they have legitimate concerns regarding NATO membership. It isn’t purely a defensive alliance but a full takeover was not the way to get those concerns taken seriously. I hope both the Russian and Ukrainian people thrive and prosper. Ultimately I invest in stocks to make money and try to do so dispassionately and rationally. Some people find this cold / challenging / upsetting, particularly once lives are lost. I try to remove any moral grounds from anything I do in investing. I didn’t cause this crisis, where my money is has nothing to do with who/what I support. I’m just a guy making the best of the world I find myself in…

Tharisa – mispriced following minority buy out, very low risk opportunity.

I believe yesterday’s RNS released by Tharisa. They are buying out BEE minorities stake in the South African Mine for $26.5m by issuing 13 903 743 new shares. I wrote them up here (when the Rhodium price was much higher). I think the share price isn’t reflecting the amount of value they have obtained from this transaction.

2021 Performance / Portfolio Review a slightly disappointing +20.5%

On to my usual review of the year (last years here). We are slightly shy of the full year end but I recon I am up about 20.5%. This is in my usual 20-22% range. It is below that of the (not comparable) NASDAQ (at 27% (in USD) and behind the S&P500 – at 25.82% (in USD). The UK All share was 17.9% and the FTSE 100 was at 18.1%. There has been a decrease in market breadth which is traditionally a sign of a top. Index performance in the US is driven by tech and healthcare, sectors which I hold next to nothing in, so to *roughly* keep up given my idiosyncratic portfolio is actually a sign of strength. One can’t sensibly benchmark my portfolio against anything as it’s just so odd, but I need to so that I can determine whether I am wasting my time.