Portfolio Update

Thought I would post a brief update on many of my positions / performance.

Apoolgies if you have seen this before I think I may have published a draft by mistake…

Performance up until end September is 30% up since end December 2013 or 40% over the last 12 months.

Fyffes – as you may recall this tripled since my entry price – due to an offer from CQB up to a high of €1.30.  Unfortunately the deal was in CQB stock, which fell on bad results.  I had a bit of an analytical problem with this – do I value FFY as a standalone business – someone else could still come in and offer – if only to make CQB pay more.  Or do I look at it as a proxy for CQB – which I wouldn’t want to own.  Yet another thing to consider is whether CQB are paying in shares due to their own stock being overvalued.  Later there was a bid for CQB – pushing FFY as low as €0.90  I sold 75% at €1.05-1.10 for portfolio balance reasons and am holding the rest.  I am going to look into adding a bit more as the deal changed again on Friday – but I think this position is nearing its end.

Lamprell – rights issue – to raise working capital mostly – stock doing very well – approximately doubled my money on this.  I think the orders will come once the rights issue is completed.  Given problems and the cost of rigs I expect buyers are nervous of undercapitalised suppliers, particulary given LAM’s recent history…  Doing very well.

Symphony, up a touch from my entry to $0.78 (having said that it paid a dividend of c $0.10 – so I am up c15-20%.  Good news is it has started to pay a divi! The more money they pay to me the less management could take in fees – always a plus. Invested in some wine business – with their discount to NAV I would prefer they just give me my money back, having said that they have been good investors in the past

DUPD – performed strongly – few price gyrations.  I got out and am still out.  Simon Thompson tipped it in the IC and it rose to 38.  I expect it to drift back down again.  Still tempted by it will want to be convinced that buyers of Ukrainian property wont demand too much of a discount given recent events!

BTEM – done OK – up a bit, all very dull…

Fondul Proprietatea dual listing has been announced – London Listing shortly. Selling Romgaz shares – hopefully will give me a nice, special dividend.  Buying back shares, still at 26% discount to NAV.  Unfortunately my broker announced they dropped Romanian shares. So I needed to look around / sign up with for one which offered them. Ultimately I went with ktrade.ro – this involved opening the account – which was convoluted, opening a Euro bank account then sending the money. As my broker gave me under a month’s notice of their withdrawal of Romanian shares I was out of the market for the London listing announcement – missing 8% of upside. I am very annoyed about this – its one thing to fail to make money due to my own mistakes but quite another to loose out due to administrative BS… Lesson learnt – I need to be careful with who I use as my broker on any esoteric trades I may do.. Still up well over 50% in two years

Man Group, done well, good results, even AHL (major computer driven fund) doing well, returning cash via buy backs.  Been a bit volatile but I am continuing to hold.  I may, however trim a bit as it is getting to be a tad large… Up c 40-50% on entry price

Asian Citrus (ACHL), fallen due to lousy results / bad weather and everyone hating Chinese cos.  Still MCAP less than cash on balance sheet, has a dispersed shareholder register (unusual for cheap as chips Chinese Cos and has plants and agricultural operations which are profitable.  Ever present question – is it a fraud?  I have no evidence to suggest it is and it has been going quite a while with constant unsubstantiated rumours – and if it is – what are the auditors doing – how hard can it be to audit cash on the balance sheet ?  Keep meaning to put my thoughts together on this in a bit more depth but been busy of late. Down about 60%.

 KPN – got out approx 10% loss – though I held it ages….

TCF – Terra Catalyst fund – did 80% one day when NAV doubled due to the removal of a potential CGT liability. This has been an amazing investment – hard to work out exactly how much I have made due to share cancellations etc – at a guess 100-150% of my initial investment over about 2 years. I looked back at the chart the other day and I bought right at the bottom – there was literally no time the position wasnt in profit….

IERP – down 12% – bad results fall in NAV. Thesis intact so holding.

Silver down a bit – lost 50% of my initial investment. Still holding – its a protection against a collapse in the pound. Tempted by more gold / silver – but will wait for now. On a macro level I think things are going to get hairy – UK property insanely overvalued and when it goes it will take the rest of the economy with it….

National grid/ others all very dull…

Am increasingly bearish on the market generally – too much optimism out there, things going at silly prices, considering buying a put on the market, particularly given low volatility.

My watch list is RMG, DLAR, PTF – and I keep meaning to have a look at the insurers too…

As ever, thoughts welcome.


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